Not to harp on this topic, but I was curious whether people are watching as much TV these days. If you watch TV on a regular basis, you know that the networks stop airing original episodes as they go into the holiday season and then shows start back up in January. Except that they’ve run out of original episodes, due to the Writer’s Guild strike, which started on November 5.
Despite the Hollywood writers’ strike, the big TV networks have more than a hundred episodes of scripted series ready to roll out over the next few months.
The bad news for viewers: Few are fan favorites.
“Desperate Housewives” is done, the dust barely settled from a tornado that hit Wisteria Lane. “Grey’s Anatomy” has no more episodes left, as does Thursday competitor “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation.” No more laughs are coming from “Two and a Half Men,” “30 Rock” and “The Office.” “Heroes” is also done.
Several other shows are down to a precious few, the networks carefully rationing new material like a hiker lost in the desert with a half-empty canteen. One of the three remaining “House” episodes, for example, is set aside for maximum impact right after the Super Bowl.
To this point, the two-month strike has had little effect on prime-time television, unless you were really looking forward to the Golden Globes. Most networks already had their lineups set for November, and December is dominated by reruns and holiday shows anyway.
“It’s been pretty much business as usual,” said Brad Adgate, a research analyst at Horizon Media Inc.
The true test will come in February, a ratings “sweeps” month for which networks have always set aside original episodes of their most popular series, he said.
So far this season, the four networks are down 5 percent in viewers from the previous year, according to Nielsen Media Research. That’s about the same rate of decline as last year, as cable and the spread of digital video recorders inexorably cut into the live audience for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox.
The decline accelerated to 9 percent in the first two weeks of 2008. Analysts say warm weather in the East may have as much to do with that as strike-depleted lineups.
I’m not sure about that. I live in the D.C./Baltimore area and I don’t recall people running around in the “warm” weather, instead of staying home in front of a warm fire and a glowing television.
Looking ahead, CBS’ stockpile of original programming is the shortest. “CSI: Miami,” “NCIS,” “Criminal Minds,” “Cold Case,” “Shark” and “Numb3rs” are among the series down to only one fresh show apiece. Two series set for a midseason return, “The New Adventures of Old Christine” and “Jericho,” have two months’ worth of episodes.
Some analysts pick Fox as the network that will be least damaged by the strike, and not just because “American Idol” is back. It was the most improved network in ratings this fall, with growth from shows like “Prison Break” and “Bones,” and both these shows have at least a month’s worth of new episodes still unseen.
Because they are animated and needed to be produced well in advance, Fox’s popular Sunday night lineup with “The Simpsons” and “Family Guy” all have a season’s worth of shows done. The midseason drama “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles” had the strongest debut of any new series this season.
CBS and NBC are also taking the unprecedented steps of rerunning drama series that were originally aired on sister cable stations — Showtime’s “Dexter” on CBS and USA’s “Monk” and “Psych” on NBC.
“Law & Order” and “Medium” are set for two or three months on NBC. The network is also pleased with how its “American Gladiators” game is doing.
ABC has “Dancing With the Stars” and “The Bachelor” ready to return. And “Cashmere Mafia,” “Eli Stone,” “Notes From the Underbelly” and “Men in Trees” all have two or three months of new episodes available for ABC.
And I just started watching The Wire for the first time (I know, shame on me…). Maybe I could Netflix the first season?
One thing to remember is that advertisers aren’t just interested in ratings, but in demographics. Sure, you can fill your airtime with reality shows, but your hour-long drama may deliver better demos.
UPDATE: In World Screen News today:
About 35 percent of Americans have changed their media consumption habits as a result of the Hollywood writers strike, according to a report by the consultancy firm Interpret, and 27 percent are watching less network TV.
The survey also notes that 94 percent of Americans are aware of the Writers Guild of America strike, and 55 percent are cognizant of the issues involved. Of that 55 percent, 56 percent support the writers, 7 percent support the producers and 37 percent don’t support either.
Heavy-TV viewers (watching 21 hours or more a week) have been most impacted by the strike with 32 percent viewing less network TV. DVDs have been the biggest beneficiaries, with 43 percent of respondents noting they are watching more movies because of the strike; 26 percent are reading more and 23 percent are watching more TV shows on DVD.
Interpret also found that if the networks replace first-run series with reality shows and repeats, nearly half of Americans (46 percent) say their TV viewing behavior would change.
Tags: WGA Strike, television, TV shows
3 Responses
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Dave Arnott Says:
Haven’t yet seen The Wire? Indeed, shame on you, sir.
In other news: Hey hey, welcome back to your site! Haven’t popped in (get it? get it? POPped in…!) here for a while, and WHAM – ! you’re writing like Gangbusters all of a sudden.
Sweet. Good to “hear” you again, my friend.
[dash, exclamation point ©Shane Black]
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The Pop View Says:
More on the strike’s impact from Thom Taylor in Fortune:
The studios’ continuing refusal to come back to the bargaining table only accelerates the development of the disruptive technology that they have feared so much.
But it’s the WGA’s deal with Media Rights Capital that could end up being most significant. Co-founded by a new media entrepreneur who sold his dot-com for over $1 billion, MRC’s willingness to form a pay structure for creators’ work on the Internet is bound to have studios reconsidering their strategies. This could be the deal that bridges the gap between the two sides–the gap that’s made for an especially chilly Hollywood winter.
As the town starts the New Year, the question facing Hollywood is: “What new business model will emerge from this strike?” Because–as in 1988–it may well be the work stoppage itself that changes the business forever. The studios could be cutting off their noses to spite their faces, because the longer the strike continues, the more inevitably it becomes that their one-time partners will begin to create and distribute product via the Internet–without them.
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The Pop View Says:
Or this prediction from VideoNuze back in December:
5. WGA strike fuels broadband video proliferation.
As the writers’ strike slogs on, it is inevitable that many writers and producers (especially below the top tier) are going to look upon broadband as an attractive new medium to ply their trade. The signs are already there. It will be an ironic twist that the strike, which is centered on reallocating “new media” revenues, is going to stoke more interest in broadband productions, but outside the traditional apparatus.I can’t put my finger on exactly how this is going to unfold, but I think I can say with confidence that there is a lot of smart money eager to place bets on broadband video content. Writers and producers with track records and plausible plans will get funded. Quarterlife, Next New Networks, FunnyOrDie are all pre-strike examples of this. The strike only accelerates things.